“Understanding ourselves, navigating the world around us, making sense of others, and recognising the impact we have on them. Because who are we, really, if not shaped by one another?”

Happy Thursday, everyone. I’m Shaida Darian, a Business and Organisational Psychologist. I’m fascinated by three questions: Why does this happen? What can we do about it? And when should we act? Join me down the rabbit hole. With any luck, we’ll find Wonderland.

This week in workplace whiplash 🌀

  • Graduate jobs hit a record low.
    UK graduate vacancies fell 45.6% year-on-year in July to 8,383, according to Adzuna data reported by People Management. Employers are cutting junior hiring while competition for entry-level roles intensifies.
    👉 People Management

  • LinkedIn profiles are travelling through time.
    Research found 19.7% of US LinkedIn users edited past profile information between 2020 and 2026. Recruiters say keyword-heavy hiring may be encouraging candidates to rewrite experience in the language screening systems expect.
    👉 People Management

  • AI is getting blamed for the cuts.
    More than 112,000 corporate job losses were linked to AI in 2026, according to Challenger data cited by the Financial Times. Economists caution that AI may also be serving as a convenient explanation for wider restructuring.
    👉 Financial Times

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📬Thursday Reflections

As we get closer to the weekend, we tend to replay the week: things we did right, what fell short, and what we probably overcomplicated.

I’m Shaida Darian, a Business and Organisational Psychologist, and I do this more than I’d like to admit. I’m always noticing small contradictions and patterns at work, especially when systems that look perfectly sensible on paper meet the much messier reality of how people actually behave.

One recurring contradiction I’ve noticed is how neatly people can be reduced to criteria before they join an organisation: qualifications, years of experience, competencies, keywords. Then they arrive, and performance becomes far less tidy. The people who succeed are often the ones who can adapt, navigate people and situations, build trust, solve problems no job description anticipated, and make themselves useful when circumstances change.

This week, that collision starts with Applicant Tracking Systems. We’ve built increasingly sophisticated tools to identify the “right” candidate. Useful, certainly. But precision only matters if we’ve defined the target properly.

Which brings me to the question: are we getting better at hiring the right people, or simply getting better at filtering them?

🧠The organisational science lens

We have perfected the art of filtering candidates, without getting any better at identifying who will succeed.

At the heart of this sits a century-old problem in selection science: the criterion problem. Defining what successful performance means is notoriously difficult. Human performance is multidimensional, contextual, and stubbornly resistant to being compressed into a neat numerical target.

When we automate recruitment, it naturally favours criteria that are easier to measure. Yet workplace performance extends well beyond technical capability. But as psychologists famously showed, true workplace success depends just as heavily on “contextual performance”. This is the unwritten work: cooperating with others, helping colleagues, persisting when things get difficult, and holding the team together. Research has shown that managers weigh these invisible, human-centric contributions almost equally to technical output when evaluating their teams.

This gap exposes a fundamental disconnect in hiring: what we measure before someone walks through the door is rarely what we value once they are inside. Take criteria such as “years of experience”. They look reassuringly objective on a screen, but they can be a poor shortcut for future success. A major review found that pre-hire experience has a surprisingly weak relationship with actual job performance.

But before we throw out the software and return to raw intuition, we must face an equally uncomfortable reality: human instinct is notoriously terrible at this, too. Further research confirms that consistent, structured formulas regularly outperform recruiters relying on overall “gut feel”.

Consistency only becomes useful when we have defined the right outcome to predict. The technology can aim with impressive precision. But precision is useless if we are pointing the laser at the wrong target.

🚀What this means for leaders

Automating selection only works if you have done the slower, harder work of defining what success requires. To build a hiring process that matches reality, leaders should:

  • Define the actual target first: Look beyond the generic job description. Before you write a single screening rule, catalogue the specific technical outputs, judgement calls, and contextual behaviours (like collaboration and adaptability) that define your actual top performers.

  • Audit the lifecycle disconnect: Define the same core capabilities across the employee lifecycle. If adaptability, collaboration and judgement are what you develop, reward and promote later, make sure they are also reflected in how candidates are assessed at the start. Then review your hiring criteria against post-hire performance data and adjust anything that is not predicting the outcomes you actually value.

  • Structure the human input: Returning to “gut instinct” is not the solution. Instead, combine the consistency of algorithms with structured human judgement. Use validated assessments, consistent interview questions, and explicit decision rules to let human judgement contribute without letting personal bias dominate.

💬 Final thoughts

A screening algorithm can hit its designated target with impressive precision and still miss the point entirely if the target itself is wrong.

As organisations invest heavily in making hiring faster and more automated, the more meaningful measure appears further downstream. A hiring system proves its value when the candidate it identifies as “optimal” goes on to adapt, collaborate and thrive in the role.

If we don't bridge that gap, we are simply perfecting our aim before deciding where the bullseye belongs.

If something here speaks to you, I’d love to hear it.

Until next week,
Shaida

P.S. Where do your pre-hire criteria stop matching what your team surely values and rewards? Reply to this email and let me know.

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